NFL: Cincinnati at Green Bay (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

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2008-08-11

After an offseason’s worth of news surrounding the Brett Favre/Green Bay Packers saga, the next chapters of the story will finally unfold on the field, starting tonight in Green Bay, where the Packers host Cincinnati on ESPN’s preseason Monday night football. Aaron Rodgers gets his first start for the hosts, who’ll play as a 3-point favorite.

Undoubtedly, most of the Monday broadcast will focus on Rodgers. His play, the reception he gets, and how he handles himself in his new role as starter for Green Bay will be critiqued to the point of overload. Let us not forget however, that there is an entire game, a whole other team, and a pointspread and total for us enthusiasts to concern ourselves with.

When looking at this game from a betting perspective, the first thing that jumps out at you has to be the fact that the Packers are being given at least the full 3-points of home field advantage by oddsmakers. Whether or not this is warranted figures to be the question of the day, as the Packers are a club that have been inundated with distraction throughout the entire offseason and first two weeks of training camp. While the organization and players have insisted the Favre-saga has been put behind them, their actions on the field in a sloppy scrimmage last Saturday night would certainly suggest otherwise.

Green Bay has not hosted a game at Lambeau Field since the NFL Championship loss to the Giants, but was able to re-establish some of the home field advantage last year that became so powerful in the Mike Holgren-era. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams have actually become known for their road prowess, generating back-to-back seasons of 6-2 ATS away from home in his two seasons. That type of overall success has been limited to the regular season, as Green Bay has struggled in the preseason under McCarthy, going just 3-5 ATS (2-2 at home). The scenario that has been most challenging has been against AFC foes, as the Pack is just 1-5 ATS over the last two seasons in that scenario.

The questions won’t stop at Rodgers tonight for Green Bay, as both of his backups are rookies. Brian Brohm of Louisville is the assumed second-string replacement and he will be filled by Matt Flynn of LSU, the starter for last year’s national champion team. Both have endured struggles in their transition to the NFL since the April draft.

Where questions abound in Green Bay, optimism reigns in Cincinnati. The Bengals are anxious to put the 2007 season, and their troubled past to rest as they head into 2008. Several players who received their share of negative off-the-field attention are gone, and the team has turned to a more character-strong roster. Of course, there might not be any bigger characters than WR Chad Johnson in the entire league. If you missed his strange offseason, don’t worry, as you really missed nothing but theatrics. His threats of holding out for a trade went idle and he remains a Bengal for the coming season. Still, after battling injury during the start of training camp, he figures to be on the sideline Monday.

Cincinnati has struggled on the road in the preseason in the five years under Marvin Lewis. His teams are just 2-6 SU & 4-4 ATS in that scenario. They have been a reliable OVER team as road underdogs though, having surpassed the total in eight of their last nine road preseason games. The average score in those contests have been Cincinnati 19.9, Opponent 25.8. With a renewed focus on the defensive side of the football, Lewis’ group figures to improve on that horrid PPG allowed average tonight.

Additionally, where the total is concerned, Monday’s game fits into a strong StatFox Super Situation focusing on the UNDER 36:

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CINCINNATI) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (44-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)

This will be the second time in three preseasons that the Packers and Bengals have met, and Green bay will be looking for an entirely different outcome than the last time. In that 2006 contest in Cincinnati, the Bengals thrashed the Packers, 48-17, after taking a 34-7 lead into the halftime locker room.

StatFox Pick: Cincinnati +3 & UNDER 36