Football Wagers
NFL revised drug and banned substances penalties
2010-10-21
Player conduct is one of the most important things that the NFL is concerned about. Following this, no mercy is given a player is deemed to be behaving contrary to the set of regulation. Apart from maintaining league discipline in the national football league, the drug rules are part of the most welcome amongst the players although criticism cannot be hidden. Drug rules were conceived when many players were suspected to be playing under influence and apart from just being indiscipline and ineffective players, their health was being weakened and this could translate to very bad criticism and fall of reputation to the league as a whole.
The national football league introduced drug rules long ago but was revised in the year 2007 with more tough requirements and penalties this time round. One of the repercussions was that players would dig deeper into their pockets for their misconducts in relation to the drug policy. Performance enhancement drugs and especially steroids were quite inevitable among many players. In the same year, the NFL made it clear that EPO, a blood boosting substance to their list of banned substances. this was after intensive discussions and negotions between the officials of the players union and those of the league.
Among the agreed penalties of misconducct and use of banned substances among plyers included suspension to players who would be evidenced as using the drugs. Apart from this, players should be forfeited off their bonuses by an a determined percentage and even more tough, such players in their first time of testing positive cannot be paid during the time they are away on suspensions. Formerly, the salaries would be cut down but the bnusess maintauined yet in most instances, players get bonuses that are mopre fat than their salaries.
The NFL commissioner on behalf of the league Roger Goodell while announcing these changes in the drug and banned substances policy had expressed concern that its programs were being affected because of the wide usage of drugs among players. And this was not only the end because this regulation can be amended in future either to toughen it further or make it more use-friendly.
To make the players more responsible, this policy was implemented with tougher actions such that the testing of drug users would be done weekly and that any ten team players would selected randomly for the samples and EPO test as taken more seriously. Previously only seven members would be selected for the test and a total of about 10000 would undergo the test in the league which means that from 2007, this of players tested in each season is about 12000. In the United States by then, there was no other league that would carry EPO test at that close interval.
NFL Saturday Preseason Betting Action
2010-08-21
The bulk of the NFL Week 2 Preseason action is scheduled for Saturday evening, as 11 different games are on tap, offering up a pretty extensive betting menu. Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing action, looking for holes in Sportsbook.com’s prices.
Pittsburgh (1-0) at New York Giants (1-0), 7:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Pittsburgh -4 Total: 33.5
Tom Coughlin says that Eli Manning will sit this one out after suffering a gruesome cut on his forehead in Monday’s 31-16 win over the Jets. The cut required 12 stitches, but it appears that Manning avoided any serious damage. Backup Jim Sorgi, who used to hold the clipboard for Eli’s brother in Indianapolis, performed admirably in relief, completing 8-of-15 passes for 146 yards and 2 TD. Sorgi, however, is also sidelined, which means second-year QB Rhett Bomar will get most, if not all, of the action under center. Bomar was 6-for-7 for 67 yards and a score on Monday. Former Holy Cross quarterback Dominic Randolph was signed a free agent on Thursday and could end up seeing some fourth-quarter action.
After sitting out the Steelers’ preseason opening 23-7 win over the Lions, Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play against the Giants. Dennis Dixon, third on the depth chart, proved to be more effective than Byron Leftwich. Dixon was 6-for-7 for 128 yards, including a 68-yard scoring toss to Antonio Brown. Dixon also rushed for 31 yards on six carries. Leftwich finished 6-10 with 43 passing yards.
The Steelers are coming into this game with two more days of preparation than the Giants, a factor that could work in their favor. FoxSheets show that the NY GIANTS are 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993. The average score was NY GIANTS 17.2, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 1*).
Baltimore (1-0) at Washington (1-0, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Washington -3 Total: 38.5
Donovan McNabb played just two series in the Redskins’ 42-17 rout of the Bills last Friday, finishing off his second drive with a 4-yard TD pass to Anthony Armstrong. McNabb was 5-for-8 for 58 yards and the one score. Rex Grossman stepped in and went 11-for-18 for 140 yards and a pair of TD passes. RB Keiland Williams, undrafted out of LSU, carried the ball 11 times for 51 yards and two touchdowns.
Joe Flacco led the Ravens to 10 points on three drives in their 17-12 win over the Panthers. Flacco was 8-for-12 for 120 yards. He marched the Ravens 96 yards down the field on his third possession, which culminated with a 30-yard strike to Mark Clayton.
The Ravens defense, which did not allow an offensive TD against the Panthers in their opener, should pose a tougher challenge for the Redskins this week. FoxSheets make a compelling case for the Ravens. WASHINGTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games off 1 or more straight overs since 1993. The average score was WASHINGTON 16.8, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*).
Houston (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1), 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Saints -1 Total: 41
Matt Schaub did what elite NFL quarterbacks are expected to do in the preseason opener, a 19-16 Texans loss at Arizona. Schaub, coming off a Pro Bowl season, completed 5-of-6 passes for 78 yards, leading his team to a TD and a FG on his two drives. Schaub connected with his favorite target, Andre Johnson, for a 44-yard score. The Houston defense held strong for three quarters, blanking the Cardinals before allowing 19 points in the fourth quarter.
The vaunted Saints offense struggled in their opener in New England, where they fell to the Patriots 27-24. Drew Brees played three series, the first two of which resulted in punts, before leading a 20-play, 86-yard that was capped off with a 2-yard TD run by Reggie Bush. Brees finished 9-for-13 for 55 yards.
Just as Tom Brady led a pair of scoring drives against the Saints to start last week’s game, there’s a good chance Schaub could do the same and give the Texans another early lead. It will be up to the backups to preserve it. This FoxSheets system favors the Texans as an underdog. Play On - Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the third week of the preseason. (27-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*).
Dallas (1-1) at San Diego (1-0), 9:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: San Diego -3 Total: 36.5
After playing two games in five days, the Cowboys should be well-rested heading to San Diego to take on the Chargers. After defeating Cincinnati 16-7 to open the year in the Hall of Fame Game, the Cowboys let a lead slip away late and lost to Oakland 17-9 on August 12. Dallas has struggled on offense so far this preseason, averaging 12.5 points and 280 yards per game.
Offense wasn’t a problem for San Diego in their preseason opener, a 25-10 home win against Chicago. Philip Rivers tossed a touchdown pass and the Chargers ran for 120 yards, led by Ryan Mathews’ 50 yards on nine carries. San Diego’s defense also stepped up, forcing two turnovers and limiting the Bears to only 216 yards of total offense.
Because of what transpired for each team last week, there is actually a fairly impressive system favoring Dallas in this one:
Play Against - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. (27-9 since 1993.) (75%, +17.1 units. Rating = 2*).
NFL: PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS (8:20 PM ET, NBC)
2010-01-09
Philadelphia makes a return trip to Dallas after Sunday’s ugly 24-0 loss which cost the division title and a would-be bye this weekend. Instead, the Cowboys will play as NFC East Champs, getting the advantage of playing at home where they are 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS so far in ’09. They will also play as the favorite of 4-points, and getting the support of 56% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
With back-to-back shutouts, Dallas finished as the NFC’s best defense in terms of points allowed at 15.6 PPG. Of course, they also gained a lofty 7.8 yards per pass attempt, so it would seem Dallas is ready to break a 13-year playoff-win drought. The Eagles have been a NFC playoff fixture this decade and reached the conference championship game as the #6 seed last January. They are 10-7 SU & 11-6 ATS in the postseason under Andy Reid, including 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the wildcard round.
It wasn’t long ago—approximately a year—that Tony Romo’s biggest nightmare was the Philadelphia Eagles. After leading Dallas to a sweep of the season series, perhaps the tables have been turned completely around. The Cowboys swept the regular-season series for the first time since 2005, and Romo continued his stellar play down the stretch, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last six games, Romo has thrown for 1,859 yards and 11 scores with just two interceptions.
The tandem of Marion Barber and Felix Jones combined for 182 yards and a score on 29 carries in Week 17 and each ripped off runs of more than 30 yards. Romo comfortably completed 24 passes with throws of at least 25 yards to three different receivers, snapping the Eagles six-game winning streak.
What’s troublesome for Philadelphia is the fact that the offense, which averaged a healthy 31.2 points during the winning streak, went completely into the tank and scored just 16 points in two games against the Cowboys. Only one other team held the scoring unit below 22 points—Oakland. McNabb, meanwhile, turned in one of the best seasons of his career despite missing two games due to broken ribs and couldn’t solve the Dallas defense. In two games, he was sacked seven times and threw one touchdown and a pair of interceptions, completing just 36 of his 66 throws. If there’s one player in particular the Eagles need to be aware of that isn’t named DeMarcus Ware, it might be Jay Ratliff. The fifth-year nose tackle has recorded 16 tackles, with three sacks and two fumble recoveries, in the last four meetings.
History is on Philadelphia’s side when it comes to the postseason and production. Since 2000, Philadelphia has advanced to the playoffs seven times and won each of its seven opening games. The Cowboys haven’t enjoyed a postseason victory since 1996 when it knocked off Minnesota in the wild-card round. Jerry Jones’ franchise has lost its last six playoff games and failed to score more than 20 points in any of them.
PREDICTION Romo has now overcome two of his biggest demons—Philadelphia and regular-season games in December and January. Now, he gets a shot to clear another hurdle by winning his first playoff game after losses in 2007 (Carolina) and ‘08 (Giants). The way Barber and Jones performed in Week 17, coupled with the defense’s sparkling stretch run, points to another milestone victory for Romo. DALLAS 21, PHILADELPHIA 17
NFL: SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH (8:20 PM ET, NBC)
2009-10-02
Pittsburgh has surrendered late leads in back-to-back games to drop to 1-2. Though it’s too early to call this game vs. San Diego a must-win, the Steelers are facing a sense of urgency, already 2-games back in the AFC North. Oddsmakers are banking on the Steelers coming back strong in this game, installing them as 6-1/2 point favorites. Bettors at Sportsbook.com are saying “Not so fast”, while backing the Chargers at a near 80% rate.
What better place for a key game than Heinz Field, where HC Mike Tomlin’s team has won seven straight games while going 5-2 ATS? They’ve also won five straight at home vs. San Diego, while going 4-1 ATS. The Chargers are 2-1, chasing Denver in the AFC West. They will be off next week, an important fact since home teams are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the L6 San Diego pre-bye week contests. Pittsburgh opened as a 5-1/2 point favorite, but San Diego head coach Norv Turner owns a 17-5 ATS record as a road dog of 3.5-7 points.
The Chargers return to the scene of two of their losses last season, including a 35-24 defeat to the Super Bowl champion Steelers in an AFC divisional round playoff game that saw Pittsburgh’s defense allow 15 yards on the ground.LaDainian Tomlinson missed the playoff game at Heinz Field and won’t be 100 percent if he plays in the reunion due to an ankle injury that forced him to sit out two games, including last week’s 23-13 win over Miami. There was a chance during the offseason the Chargers wouldn’t bring back the face of their franchise, but they were able to restructure his three-year contract, which like the original runs through 2011. The deal gave the team salary-cap relief as well as backfield punch with Darren Sproles, who is on the verge of taking the lead role with 271 total yards and two touchdowns.
Time is clearly running out for Tomlinson to play in a Super Bowl—something his counterpart this week, Willie Parker, has experienced twice despite not being drafted. Tomlinson holds NFL records for 10-touchdown seasons to begin a career as well as rushing touchdowns in a single year, while Parker holds the mark for longest touchdown run in a Super Bowl. Parker, off to a horrible start with 66 yards on 27 carries and no scores through two games, woke up last week with 93 yards on the ground and a touchdown catch in a 23-20 upset loss in Cincinnati. Parker was instrumental in both Pittsburgh wins over the Chargers last season. He was dynamic in the playoff game with 146 yards and two touchdowns—one in each half—after gaining 115 yards in an 11-10 regular-season victory last Nov. 16.
The Steelers overcame a 308-yard, three-touchdown performance from Philip Rivers to send San Diego packing for good Jan. 11, and their defense is going to have its hands full slowing down that air attack once again. So far this season, opposing quarterbacks (Kerry Collins, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer) have thrown for 663 yards and four touchdowns with one interception against Dick LeBeau’s unit.
Vincent Jackson has developed into the Chargers’ most-targeted receiver. His receptions have gone up each of the past three years, from 27 to 41 to 59, and he’s already hauled in 16 in three games.
PREDICTION
Each of these teams brought back their meat and potatoes from a year ago and came into the season favored to win division titles. Both have a little catching up to do, yet it seems as though the Chargers have more question marks than the Steelers.
PITTSBURGH 21, SAN DIEGO 18
NFL: Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror - Playoffs
2009-01-13
While this year’s NFL postseason tournament more resembles a NCAA basketball tournament bracket, with the vast number of upsets and top seeds going down in a heap, a few reliable formulas are still working as we head towards the Conference championships and the Super Bowl.
The Basics
Thus far home teams are taking on the chin, despite the raucous crowd support these teams enjoy. Homers are 3-5 SU and against the spread, having been placed in the role of favorites a rare five times in eight games. (Fewest in eight years) As favorites, these home teams are 2-3 ATS. Though weather was more a factor for the division games, the Under has been a solid 6-2 to this point, tying the most in three years, when we also had a sixth seed (Pittsburgh) in the conference finals. In the last five years of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Under is 25-15. For what it’s worth, the Over is 6-2 the last four years in conference championships, more coming this week?
Turnovers
There are two tried principles every sports bettor’s wish they had the Magic 8-ball for to determine the outcome of playoff games. Every year we hear about how turnovers will determine the outcome of games and this year is no different. The eight winners are a +16 this far, with only San Diego’s win over Indianapolis being the surprise of sorts having a -2 turnover margin. Teams with that edge are 6-1 ATS with one game having the same amount of turnovers.
Turnovers, especially fumbles, are considered random events by most sports handicappers; however they are magnified in the playoffs, with emotions at such a fevered pitch. Turnovers seemingly create such an extreme response when it comes to the players, being sky high when they go in a teams favor and an almost ashen-look on the faces of the players of the team that turned it over. The unpredictable nature of a Chad Pennington throwing seven interceptions all year and following that up with four picks in loss to Baltimore is mind-boggling. Or Tennessee out-gaining the Ravens 391-211 in total yards, having the ball for over 34 minutes, yet committing three turnovers, two as fumbles (eight during the regular season) costing them a chance at victory. Determine the winner of turnover battle, that’s your winner.
Quarterbacks
The NFL is known as quarterback league and though any defense will influence how a signal caller will play over four quarters, their impact on any given game is immense. In the wild card games, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb out-performed their counterparts in leading their teams to victory. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco didn’t outplay either of his two opponents per se; however he made a few key plays in each game and didn’t make the big mistake. Carolina’s Jake Delhomme was crestfallen with his performance against Arizona and he should have been in throwing five interceptions.
Besides Delhomme’s meltdown, the game that signified the importance of quarterback play was Philadelphia and the Giants. Eli Manning was having a terrible time throwing the ball into the wind, tossing several knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield would have been proud of. Manning’s troubles weren’t just against the wind, as he overthrew open receivers or missed the target by a foot or more on slant routes that demand precision. Remember, Manning until last year’s late season run was known for poor mechanics. McNabb had no such issues, throwing tight spirals all day, with his only problems being on short touch passes into the wind that demanded loft, not velocity, throwing the pigskin off course. Both defenses played great games, but in the end, McNabb ability to make plays and Manning’s equal inability to not so was the difference. Expect this to influence this week’s conference championships as well.
Running the Ball
Being able to run the ball, not necessarily for a ton of yards, but to have attempts that keep a defense honest, is another important factor in winning playoff games. While detractors will point to the passing game that sets up victory in many cases to allow teams to run the ball late in games, the recent success of Philadelphia and Arizona, two teams known for throwing the ball, have found greater success with offensive balance. The team with the most rushing attempts is 6-2 SU and ATS in this year’s playoffs. The average difference in carries for the winning team is 32.6 to 23.7 per game.
Stopping the Run
Here’s a thought-provoking question, how many times have you heard a coach or player say, we have to stop the run of the opposing team? The answer is most of the time and there is good reason for it. Being run on is defensively demoralizing. When a team is passing the ball, certain elements have to come together, the receiver has to get open and run the correct route. The quarterback has to have protection and deliver the ball on time and accurately. If any of those things don’t happen, a pass can be incomplete. The running game is simpler, it’s about blocking and tackling and the runner hitting the hole. Certainly their can be similar breakdowns that destroy plays, yet stopping the opponent from running makes them one dimensional and easier to defend. As fellow StatFox cohort Steve found, teams that allow the fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season has always been a solid wager and this season is incredible 7-1 ATS. (See Platinum Sheet for other unique info) This week that favors the teams from the Keystone State, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
NFL: NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2008-11-10
The NFL Week 10 Sunday Night feature pits NFC East rivals New York & Philadelphia. No disrespect to the Redskins, but according to the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings, the Giants and Eagles are the top teams in the division, and with two head-to-head meetings coming in the next five weeks, the East title could hinge on what happens in those two games. Philly is a 3-point home favorite, but over 70% of early bettors were backing New York.
This first of the two matchups is in Philly, beneficial for the Eagles since they are trailing the Giants in the standings by two-games. HC Andy Reid’s team has won three of four games at home this year, allowing just 11.5 PPG. The defending champs are 2-1 SU & ATS on the road in ’08, and 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in their L14. With Philly a 3-point favorite, note that the underdog in this series has covered the L6.
Good things have happened in threes for the Giants at Lincoln Financial Field recently. New York has won three straight road games in the series, including two by a field goal. Few could have imagined the words third-place preceding the Eagles name in 2008, but such is the state of the NFC East. A win over the Giants, however, could slide them back into contention.
Having a healthy Brian Westbrook back in the lineup certainly puts Philadelphia fans in a better frame of mind and definitely gives the Giants' defense something to think about. In the last four meetings, Westbrook has averaged 134.5 total yards per game, and his pass-catching ability creates the biggest headaches. Applying pressure from the outside works great against teams lacking a short or intermediate passing game. The Eagles, however, have both, and regularly feature Westbrook on short swing passes or screen passes to nullify the ends advance.
Containing the Giants pass rush has been a major issue for Philadelphia.
Donovan McNabb was sacked 15 times in last year's two meetings, including a dozen in a 2007 Week 4 defeat. The Eagles, though, have shored up most of the issues on the line, and it shows in McNabb's performance. He's been sacked just three times in the last four games and not surprisingly, the team is 3-1 after a 26-7 win at Seattle.
McNabb's counterpart, Eli Manning, rarely has a dirty jersey at the final gun himself, because defenses can't get to him. Sacked just nine times, he's completing a career-high 61.2 percent of his passes thanks to the extra time and has curtailed his turnovers as well (five interceptions). He turned in another efficient performance in a 35-14 win over Dallas, throwing three touchdowns.
Blitzing the quarterback has long been a staple of the Jim Johnson-led defense with the Eagles, but unlike past units, there is no dominant rusher.
Instead, the production has been spread out among the ranks, with Darren Howard leading the way (6.5 sacks) The X-factor for the Eagles will be wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, who has returned to the lineup with nine grabs in the last two games. Jackson is the clear-cut No. 1, and the presence of Curtis can only help the passing attack as a whole.
PREDICTION: The Eagles' offense has taken off over the last three games, averaging 31.0 points, and presents a mighty challenge for New York. McNabb can more than match the Giants on the scoreboard. PHILADELPHIA 27, N.Y. GIANTS 21
NFL: Cincinnati at Green Bay (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-08-11
After an offseason’s worth of news surrounding the Brett Favre/Green Bay Packers saga, the next chapters of the story will finally unfold on the field, starting tonight in Green Bay, where the Packers host Cincinnati on ESPN’s preseason Monday night football. Aaron Rodgers gets his first start for the hosts, who’ll play as a 3-point favorite.
Undoubtedly, most of the Monday broadcast will focus on Rodgers. His play, the reception he gets, and how he handles himself in his new role as starter for Green Bay will be critiqued to the point of overload. Let us not forget however, that there is an entire game, a whole other team, and a pointspread and total for us enthusiasts to concern ourselves with.
When looking at this game from a betting perspective, the first thing that jumps out at you has to be the fact that the Packers are being given at least the full 3-points of home field advantage by oddsmakers. Whether or not this is warranted figures to be the question of the day, as the Packers are a club that have been inundated with distraction throughout the entire offseason and first two weeks of training camp. While the organization and players have insisted the Favre-saga has been put behind them, their actions on the field in a sloppy scrimmage last Saturday night would certainly suggest otherwise.
Green Bay has not hosted a game at Lambeau Field since the NFL Championship loss to the Giants, but was able to re-establish some of the home field advantage last year that became so powerful in the Mike Holgren-era. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams have actually become known for their road prowess, generating back-to-back seasons of 6-2 ATS away from home in his two seasons. That type of overall success has been limited to the regular season, as Green Bay has struggled in the preseason under McCarthy, going just 3-5 ATS (2-2 at home). The scenario that has been most challenging has been against AFC foes, as the Pack is just 1-5 ATS over the last two seasons in that scenario.
The questions won’t stop at Rodgers tonight for Green Bay, as both of his backups are rookies. Brian Brohm of Louisville is the assumed second-string replacement and he will be filled by Matt Flynn of LSU, the starter for last year’s national champion team. Both have endured struggles in their transition to the NFL since the April draft.
Where questions abound in Green Bay, optimism reigns in Cincinnati. The Bengals are anxious to put the 2007 season, and their troubled past to rest as they head into 2008. Several players who received their share of negative off-the-field attention are gone, and the team has turned to a more character-strong roster. Of course, there might not be any bigger characters than WR Chad Johnson in the entire league. If you missed his strange offseason, don’t worry, as you really missed nothing but theatrics. His threats of holding out for a trade went idle and he remains a Bengal for the coming season. Still, after battling injury during the start of training camp, he figures to be on the sideline Monday.
Cincinnati has struggled on the road in the preseason in the five years under Marvin Lewis. His teams are just 2-6 SU & 4-4 ATS in that scenario. They have been a reliable OVER team as road underdogs though, having surpassed the total in eight of their last nine road preseason games. The average score in those contests have been Cincinnati 19.9, Opponent 25.8. With a renewed focus on the defensive side of the football, Lewis’ group figures to improve on that horrid PPG allowed average tonight.
Additionally, where the total is concerned, Monday’s game fits into a strong StatFox Super Situation focusing on the UNDER 36:
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CINCINNATI) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (44-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)
This will be the second time in three preseasons that the Packers and Bengals have met, and Green bay will be looking for an entirely different outcome than the last time. In that 2006 contest in Cincinnati, the Bengals thrashed the Packers, 48-17, after taking a 34-7 lead into the halftime locker room.
StatFox Pick: Cincinnati +3 & UNDER 36
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